2020 Vision - Manhattan RE Market
A new decade. Will the market rebound? Some positive signs. Everything is negotiable.
As Mark Twain said: "Buy Land, They Ain’t Making Any More Of It."
According to a study by economists from Rutgers University developable land in Manhattan—excluding parks, roads, and highways is worth between $1.54 and $1.95 trillion, for an average of $1.74 trillion more than the GDP of Canada. To put that in perspective back in 1626, the Dutch broker Peter Minuit negotiated the sale of Manhattan, “the island of many hills,” from the Lenape people for $24 worth of trinkets.
The Manhattan real estate market has been declining for 4-5 years. The new mansion tax and policy changes coupled with recession speculation has slowed and shifted the market in 2019. Manhattan saw fewer sales compared to 2018.
The increased sales seen in 2015, 2016, and 2017 deserve consideration, however, and 2018 and 2019 trends are suggestive of market normalization, not crash. The market in Manhattan goes up and down but doesn't crash unless there's another 9/11, Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and financial crisis. God forbid but even those "crashes" which happened quickly didn't last very long.
Markets go in cycles. Construction booms tend to lead to a glut of apartments that lead to a buyer's market. Any one who bought during the booms and gluts and held for 10 years or still own made huge profits or accumulated huge equity. While markets go in cycles the best time to buy a home is when you have the money and you need a place to live. Life conditions instead of market conditions. No matter what the market condition it still makes sense to Buy and Sell in the same market.
The market has been picking up the last few months since Labor Day. More traffic, offers and contracts. Positive signs heading into the new decade. Time will tell.
Happy New Year!
As Mark Twain said: "Buy Land, They Ain’t Making Any More Of It."
According to a study by economists from Rutgers University developable land in Manhattan—excluding parks, roads, and highways is worth between $1.54 and $1.95 trillion, for an average of $1.74 trillion more than the GDP of Canada. To put that in perspective back in 1626, the Dutch broker Peter Minuit negotiated the sale of Manhattan, “the island of many hills,” from the Lenape people for $24 worth of trinkets.
The Manhattan real estate market has been declining for 4-5 years. The new mansion tax and policy changes coupled with recession speculation has slowed and shifted the market in 2019. Manhattan saw fewer sales compared to 2018.
The increased sales seen in 2015, 2016, and 2017 deserve consideration, however, and 2018 and 2019 trends are suggestive of market normalization, not crash. The market in Manhattan goes up and down but doesn't crash unless there's another 9/11, Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and financial crisis. God forbid but even those "crashes" which happened quickly didn't last very long.
Markets go in cycles. Construction booms tend to lead to a glut of apartments that lead to a buyer's market. Any one who bought during the booms and gluts and held for 10 years or still own made huge profits or accumulated huge equity. While markets go in cycles the best time to buy a home is when you have the money and you need a place to live. Life conditions instead of market conditions. No matter what the market condition it still makes sense to Buy and Sell in the same market.
The market has been picking up the last few months since Labor Day. More traffic, offers and contracts. Positive signs heading into the new decade. Time will tell.
Happy New Year!
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