2018 Manhattan Year End Review

Overview

2018 was a challenging year for the Manhattan real estate market. As buyers and sellers continued to grapple with an ongoing market reset, sales declined by their greatest percentage since the financial crisis and inventory continued its upward climb. Price statistics declined versus 2017 in response to fewer new development closings, a rising share of resale co-op sales, widespread negotiability, and price reductions

Closings

Sales in 2018 declined 11% year-over-year to 11,790 closings, the lowest annual total since 2009. Condos and co-ops each had fewer sales compared to last year. New development sales fell at a rate five times the amount of either resale condos or resale co-ops, dropping 35% year-over-year to fewer than 1,500 closings; this was the lowest number of sponsor closings in more than 10 years. Resales also saw fewer sales compared to 2017, but had more moderate declines of 7% for condos and 6% for resale co-ops.

Inventory

The Manhattan market added a net total of 1,705 new development condominium units to overall supply in 2018. This was 24% fewer units than the total number launched in 2017, and the lowest number of new unit introductions since 2012. 2019 could see more than 3,000 new develompent units commence sales.

The Manhattan market added a net total of 1,705 new development condominium units to overall supply in 2018. While not an insignificant sum, this was still 24% fewer units than the total number launched in 2017, and the lowest number of new unit introductions since 2012. 2019 could see more than 3,000 new develompent units commence sales.

Prices

Marketwide price statistics declined in 2018. Median price at $1.1M was 4% lower than last year's peak. Meanwhile, average price per square foot fell 2% annually to $1,739 per square foot, but was 6% lower than its record high reached in 2016. Several factors drove price figures lower during 2018. The most significant contributor was the steady decline in new development sales. In addition, sales activity in the market for luxury apartments over $5M was, similar to 2017, muffled by low buyer and broker confidence and high levels of supply. Lastly, given that condo sales weakened more than resale co-op sales, the market share of lower- priced resale co-op sales grew versus 2017.